Bonus Wagering & Value Calculator
A casino bonus is only as good as the maths underneath it. A flashy 200% up to C$500 headline can be worth less than a modest C$50 match once you account for the wagering requirement, the game you play and the rules in the fine print. This calculator runs thousands of simulated playthroughs of your chosen offer and shows you what the average outcome looks like — and, just as importantly, how widely real results scatter around that average.
Use it before you opt in. If the expected value comes back negative and your chance of clearing is low, that's a clear signal the offer is built for the house, not for you.
Three numbers tell the story. Expected value is what you'd average if you claimed this bonus and played it through many times over — a positive figure means the offer tilts your way, a negative one means it costs you on average. Chance of clearing is the share of simulated playthroughs where you survived the full wagering with money left, rather than busting out first. The range of outcomes shows the spread between unlucky and lucky runs: a wide range means high volatility, so even a 'good value' bonus can leave you empty-handed on any single try. Read all three together — never just the headline number.
What actually decides a bonus's value
Four levers move the result more than anything else. The wagering multiplier (say 35×) sets how much total turnover you must put through before the bonus converts to withdrawable cash. The wagering basis matters too — 35× the bonus is far easier than 35× deposit-plus-bonus, which can quietly double your turnover. The game contribution decides how fast you chip away at that requirement: most slots count 100%, but table games often count 10% or less, so a blackjack 'clear' can take ten times the turnover.
The last lever is the game's own RTP and volatility. A high-RTP slot bleeds your balance slowly, giving you more rounds to clear the wagering; a low-RTP or very volatile game burns through it faster. The calculator folds all four into one model so you don't have to do the algebra in your head.
Sticky vs cashable, and why max cashout bites
A cashable bonus lets you withdraw both your winnings and the bonus itself once wagering is met. A sticky (non-cashable) bonus is play-only — you keep what you win with it, but the bonus amount is stripped out before you cash out. That single difference can flip an offer from worthwhile to not, so set the bonus type correctly before reading the result.
Then there's the max cashout cap, common on no-deposit and free-spin deals. A 'C$50 free' bonus with a C$100 cashout limit means your upside is capped no matter how hot the run goes, while your downside — the time and turnover — is not. The calculator applies the cap to every simulated run, which is why a generous-sounding free bonus can show surprisingly thin value.
How games count toward wagering
Most bonuses count each game type differently toward your wagering requirement, so the same C$10 bet can clear very different amounts of turnover.
| Game type | Counts toward wagering |
|---|---|
| Slots | 100% |
| Roulette | 10% |
| Blackjack | 10% |
| Baccarat | 10% |
| Video poker | 10% |
| Live casino | 10% |
Bonus types explained
- Cashable: Once you meet the wagering, both the bonus and your winnings can be withdrawn as real cash.
- Sticky: Play-only credit — you keep what you win with it, but the bonus amount itself is removed before you cash out.
- Free spins: A set number of fixed-value spins on chosen slots; winnings are usually paid as bonus funds with their own wagering and often a max-cashout cap.
- Cashback: A percentage of your net losses returned over a period, sometimes as real cash and sometimes as bonus funds with light or no wagering.
Worked example: a 100% up to C$200 match
Say you deposit C$200 and claim a 100% match, giving a C$200 bonus and a C$400 starting balance. The wagering is 35× the bonus, so you owe 35 × C$200 = C$7,000 in turnover. You play a 96% RTP slot at C$1 a spin, where slots count 100% toward wagering.
On paper the house edge is 4%, so 4% of C$7,000 is about C$280 of expected cost in play. Against a C$200 bonus, the simple expected value is roughly −C$80 — slightly negative before variance. But the simulations add the real-world detail: in many runs the C$400 balance never survives C$7,000 of turnover, so the chance of clearing might land near 40%. The typical result clusters around a small loss, while the lucky tail of runs finishes a few hundred dollars up. Verdict: borderline value — fine as entertainment, not a money-maker.
Glossary
RTP
Return to Player — the percentage of total stakes a game pays back on average over the very long run; 96% RTP means a 4% house edge.
House edge
The casino's built-in mathematical advantage on every bet, equal to 100% minus the RTP.
Volatility
How much results swing around the average — low volatility pays small and often, high volatility pays rarely but big.
Wagering requirement
The total turnover you must bet before bonus funds (and sometimes winnings) can be withdrawn, usually written as a multiplier like 35×.
Expected value (EV)
The average outcome of a bet or bonus if it were repeated many times — positive favours you, negative favours the house.
FAQ
Does a bigger bonus always mean better value?
No. A larger bonus usually comes with proportionally larger wagering, so the turnover scales with it. A small bonus at 20× can be far better value than a huge one at 50× with a max-cashout cap. Always read the expected value, not the headline size.
Which games clear wagering fastest?
Slots almost always count 100% and clear the requirement quickest in turnover terms, though their volatility means a wider range of outcomes. Table games like blackjack often count just 10%, so they take far more turnover — and many bonuses ban them outright. Always check the contribution table before you start.
Why is my chance of clearing below 100% even on a good offer?
Because you can run out of money before you finish the wagering. Every spin carries the house edge, and variance can hand you a cold streak that busts the balance early. The 'chance of clearing' is the share of simulated runs where you survived the full turnover — even strong offers rarely hit 100%.